Key Takeaways:
- Markets Expect Delay: Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show traders betting heavily that the federal shutdown will last more than two weeks, with millions of dollars already wagered.
- Democrats Blamed for Stalemate: President Trump placed responsibility squarely on Democrats who voted against a funding bill, saying the economic fallout and layoffs are “up to them.”
- Accountability Over Politics: Unlike past shutdowns that ended with back pay and business as usual, the Trump administration is signaling that not all furloughed workers may return, sending a message that Washington waste has real consequences.
As Washington gridlock drags on, traders are betting that the government shutdown will be anything but short-lived. Markets are signaling that the standoff could stretch past the two-week mark, with growing doubts that Democrats will strike a deal anytime soon.
On Kalshi, one of the largest online prediction markets, traders are giving a 64 percent chance that the shutdown will last more than 21 days, with over 2.5 million dollars already wagered. Over on Polymarket, the outlook is even more bearish, with 72 percent of traders betting on a shutdown lasting at least two weeks and 1.5 million dollars in trades on the line. Only about 23 percent of market participants believe Congress will reach an agreement before mid-October.
The federal government officially shut down early Wednesday morning, forcing nonessential workers home and freezing countless federal functions. Historically, these disruptions have been more political drama than economic disaster, with furloughed employees eventually receiving back pay. But this time could be different.
The Trump administration has warned that not all furloughed workers may return, framing this shutdown as a test of accountability rather than a taxpayer-funded vacation. President Trump, speaking before boarding Marine One on Sunday, made it clear who he believes is to blame: “It’s up to them,” he said, referring to Democrats who blocked funding legislation.
While traders continue to bet on prolonged dysfunction, Trump’s message remains simple: Washington’s gridlock isn’t a market failure—it’s a failure of leadership. And once again, Democrats are the ones holding the economy hostage.